Premier Forex Signals & Analysis: Jan 18
- forex368 Forex Education
- Jan 18, 2024
- 11 min read
1. China's Market Turmoil Deepens: Shanghai Composite plunges to its lowest since 2020 amid weak economic reports and restrained stimulus approach by Premier Li Qiang.
2. Mixed Asian Stock Performance: While China's equities struggle, Japan and South Korea see gains, and Australian stocks decline; Hong Kong's market recovers after initial losses.
3. Fed Rate Cut Odds Decline: Probability of a Fed rate cut in March falls below 60% for the first time in a month following robust U.S. retail sales data.
4. Global Stocks Hit One-Month Low: Repricing of Fed rate cut expectations contributes to a 2% decline in global stocks since the year's start.
5. Currency Dynamics Shift: Japanese yen nears 150 per dollar amidst the strengthening U.S. dollar; Australian dollar remains stable despite poor employment data.
6. Bond Market Reacts to Rate Cut Outlook: Short-end Treasury yields spike, reflecting changing investor expectations of Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
7. Corporate News Impact: Boeing's 737 Max 9 moves closer to ungrounding; Apple faces sales halt of certain smartwatches in U.S. due to patent issues.
8. Commodity and Crypto Market Trends: Gold slightly recovers after a drop; West Texas Intermediate oil heads towards $73; Bitcoin nears $42,500 with ongoing losses.
9. Upcoming Economic and Political Events: Key events include U.S. housing starts and jobless claims, Republican presidential debate, and ECB policy discussions.
Forex Trade Signals
Intraday Forex Signal for XAUUSD – January 18, 2024
Pair: XAUUSD
Pivot Point: 2014.45
Market Trend Analysis:
- Bollinger Bands: The price of XAUUSD has recently trended downwards, breaking below the middle Bollinger Band, suggesting a potential continuation of a bearish trend.
- Moving Averages: Gold is trading below the pivot point and has crossed below a key moving average, indicating bearish momentum.
- RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is heading towards the oversold territory, which could signal a deceleration of the bearish momentum or a potential reversal point.
Ichimoku Analysis:
- The conversion line (Tenkan-sen) is likely to be above the baseline (Kijun-sen), which generally indicates bearish sentiment, but a further look at the cloud (Kumo) can provide more insight.
Trade Direction: BEARISH
Emphasis Trade Probability: Approximately 65% based on current indicators and market conditions.
🎯 Targets for Taking Profits:
- Sell:
- 1st Target (1st Support): 1996.53
- 2nd Target (2nd Support): 1983.49
- 3rd Target (3rd Support): 1965.57
❌ Stop Loss Guidelines:
- Sell: If going short, set the stop loss just above the 1st Resistance level at 2027.49.
Suggestion: Given the bearish indicators and trading below the pivot, consider a short position with the first target at 1996.53, second at 1983.49, and third at 1965.57. Place a stop loss at 2027.49 to mitigate risk.
Yesterday's Trend: The market for XAUUSD showed bearish behaviour with a downward trend.
Volatility: The market is showing signs of increased volatility with a strong downward move, indicating a higher likelihood of price swings.
Intraday Forex Signal for WTI – January 18, 2024
Pair: WTI
Pivot Point: 71.94
Market Trend Analysis:
- Bollinger Bands: WTI is currently fluctuating near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating potential overselling and a possible bullish reversal if a pivot occurs.
- Moving Averages: WTI is trading close to the pivot point, suggesting a tentative market with potential to swing either way.
- RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is hovering around the midpoint, showing no clear overbought or oversold conditions.
Ichimoku Analysis:
- The price is below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating bearish sentiment; however, a careful watch on the cloud’s future direction is warranted for potential shifts.
Trade Direction: NEUTRAL to BULLISH bias
Emphasis Trade Probability: Approximately 55% due to the proximity to the pivot point and no clear directional indicators from RSI and Bollinger Bands.
🎯 Targets for Taking Profits:
- Buy:
- 1st Target (1st Resistance): 73.39
- 2nd Target (2nd Resistance): 74.21
- 3rd Target (3rd Resistance): 75.66
❌ Stop Loss Guidelines:
- Buy: If going long, set the stop loss just below the 1st Support level at 71.12.
Suggestion: Considering the current market indicators, traders might look for a confirmation of a bullish
reversal before entering a long position. Once confirmed, aim for incremental targets starting at 73.39, proceeding to 74.21, and if momentum persists, to 75.66. A stop loss just below the 1st Support level at 71.12 could help manage risk.
Yesterday's Trend: The trend for WTI has been relatively flat with slight bearish inclination but no significant movement.
Volatility: Volatility appears to be moderate, with the price range contained within the lower Bollinger Band range.
Intraday Forex Signal for EURUSD – January 18, 2024
Pair: EURUSD
Pivot Point: 1.0870
Market Trend Analysis:
Bollinger Bands: The EURUSD is trading near the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting a potential for a bullish reversal if market sentiment shifts.
Moving Averages: The pair is trading near the pivot point, indicating a potential shift in momentum.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is approaching the oversold territory, which could indicate an upcoming reversal to the upside.
Ichimoku Analysis:
With the price near the Ichimoku cloud, it suggests a neutral to bearish sentiment, but close monitoring is required for a clear direction.
Trade Direction: NEUTRAL to BULLISH bias
Emphasis Trade Probability: Approximately 60% based on the current proximity to the oversold condition and potential for reversal.
🎯 Targets for Taking Profits:
Buy:
1st Target (1st Resistance): 1.0900
2nd Target (2nd Resistance): 1.0910
3rd Target (3rd Resistance): 1.0940
❌ Stop Loss Guidelines:
Buy: If going long, set the stop loss just below the 1st Support level at 1.0860.
Suggestion: Considering the proximity to the lower Bollinger Band and the RSI nearing oversold conditions, traders might wait for a bullish reversal signal before entering a long position. Once confirmed, the initial target could be set at 1.0900, followed by 1.0910, and a more optimistic target of 1.0940 if upward momentum is strong. A stop loss should be placed just below 1.0860 to limit potential downside risk.
Yesterday's Trend: The EURUSD showed a slight downward trend, indicating bearish pressure.
Volatility: The volatility is moderate with the potential for increased activity if the market reacts to the oversold RSI condition.
Intraday Forex Signal for GBPUSD – January 18, 2024
Pair: GBPUSD
Pivot Point: 1.2660
Market Trend Analysis:
Bollinger Bands: GBPUSD is trading above the lower Bollinger Band, indicating potential for a bullish movement if it maintains above this level.
Moving Averages: The pair is trading slightly above a key moving average, suggesting a possible uptrend continuation.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is near the mid-level, neither overbought nor oversold, indicating a balanced market condition.
Ichimoku Analysis:
The pair is trading near the Ichimoku cloud, indicating potential indecision in the market. Watch for the price to move relative to the cloud for directional clues.
Trade Direction: NEUTRAL to BULLISH bias
Emphasis Trade Probability: Approximately 60% considering the current position relative to the Bollinger Bands and moving averages.
🎯 Targets for Taking Profits:
Buy:
1st Target (1st Resistance): 1.2720
2nd Target (2nd Resistance): 1.2760
3rd Target (3rd Resistance): 1.2820
❌ Stop Loss Guidelines:
Buy: If going long, set the stop loss just below the 1st Support level at 1.2620.
Suggestion: Traders might consider a long position if the pair continues to stay above the lower Bollinger Band, with targets set at 1.2720, 1.2760, and 1.2820 respectively. A stop loss could be placed below 1.2620 to manage the risk.
Yesterday's Trend: The GBPUSD showed a consolidation pattern, with no significant moves indicating a stable trend.
Volatility: The volatility appears to be moderate, with the pair trading within a range and no sharp movements detected.
Intraday Forex Signal for USDJPY – January 18, 2024
Pair: USDJPY
Pivot Point: 147.923
Market Trend Analysis:
Bollinger Bands: USDJPY is currently near the upper Bollinger Band, which can indicate a potential for either a continued uptrend or a reversal if the price is perceived as overextended.
Moving Averages: The currency pair is trading above key moving averages, pointing towards a bullish trend.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is trending upwards, moving towards overbought territory, which suggests bullish momentum but also warrants caution for a potential pullback.
Ichimoku Analysis:
Given the current position of the price in relation to the Ichimoku cloud, there appears to be a bullish sentiment; however, a break above or below the cloud will offer stronger directional bias.
Trade Direction: BULLISH
Emphasis Trade Probability: Approximately 70% considering the strong upward momentum indicated by the RSI and position above moving averages.
🎯 Targets for Taking Profits:
Buy:
1st Target (1st Resistance): 148.757
2nd Target (2nd Resistance): 149.353
3rd Target (3rd Resistance): 150.187
❌ Stop Loss Guidelines:
Buy: If going long, set the stop loss just below the 1st Support level at 147.327.
Suggestion: Given the bullish signals, traders might consider entering a long position with progressive targets set at 148.757, 149.353, and 150.187. A stop loss should be placed below 147.327 to mitigate risk in case of a trend reversal.
Yesterday's Trend: The USDJPY showed a significant upward trend, consistent with the current bullish momentum.
Volatility: The volatility for USDJPY appears to be increasing as indicated by the widening of the Bollinger Bands and the strong move towards the upper band.
Intraday Forex Signal for USDCHF – January 18, 2024
Pair: USDCHF
Pivot Point: 0.8620
Market Trend Analysis:
Bollinger Bands: USDCHF has moved above the middle Bollinger Band, suggesting an upward momentum.
Moving Averages: The pair is trading above the moving average, indicating a bullish trend.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is ascending towards the overbought territory, signaling growing bullish momentum, but caution is advised as it approaches overbought levels.
Ichimoku Analysis:
The price is above the Ichimoku cloud, suggesting a bullish sentiment; the distance from the cloud may indicate the strength of the trend.
Trade Direction: BULLISH
Emphasis Trade Probability: Approximately 65% based on the bullish indicators from the Bollinger Bands, RSI, and position above the moving average.
🎯 Targets for Taking Profits:
Buy:
1st Target (1st Resistance): 0.8710
2nd Target (2nd Resistance): 0.8780
3rd Target (3rd Resistance): 0.8860
❌ Stop Loss Guidelines:
Buy: If going long, set the stop loss just below the 1st Support level at 0.8560.
Suggestion: Traders might consider taking a long position, aiming for the first resistance at 0.8710, followed by 0.8780, and potentially 0.8860 if the trend continues. It's prudent to set a stop loss near 0.8560 to manage risk in case the market reverses.
Yesterday's Trend: The pair showed a bullish trend, which has continued into today's session.
Volatility: The recent upward trend suggests increasing volatility as the market reacts to the bullish sentiment.
Intraday Forex Signal for NZDUSD – January 18, 2024
Pair: NZDUSD
Pivot Point: 0.6119
Market Trend Analysis:
Bollinger Bands: NZDUSD is currently trading near the middle Bollinger Band, indicating a potential pivot area for the trend.
Moving Averages: The pair has dropped below a key moving average, signaling a possible bearish sentiment.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is declining, moving towards the oversold territory, suggesting a bearish momentum and potential for a reversal if it reaches oversold levels.
Ichimoku Analysis:
The price is approaching the Ichimoku cloud from above, which could indicate a change in the trend or potential consolidation.
Trade Direction: BEARISH
Emphasis Trade Probability: Approximately 60% considering the recent move below the moving average and the downward RSI trend.
🎯 Targets for Taking Profits:
Sell:
1st Target (1st Support): 0.6086
2nd Target (2nd Support): 0.6054
3rd Target (3rd Support): 0.6021
❌ Stop Loss Guidelines:
Sell: If going short, set the stop loss just above the 1st Resistance level at 0.6151.
Suggestion: Traders might consider taking a short position, with the first target set at 0.6086, followed by 0.6054, and if the bearish momentum continues, then 0.6021 could be the next target. The stop loss could be placed just above 0.6151 to limit potential losses should the trend reverse.
Yesterday's Trend: The NZDUSD was trending downward, which aligns with the current bearish bias.
Volatility: The volatility seems moderate, but the approach towards the oversold RSI condition may increase market sensitivity and fluctuations.
Intraday Forex Signal for AUDUSD – January 18, 2024
Pair: AUDUSD
Pivot Point: 0.6558
Market Trend Analysis:
Bollinger Bands: AUDUSD is trading near the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting potential overselling and a possible bullish reversal if it rebounds.
Moving Averages: The pair has fallen below its moving averages, indicating bearish momentum in the short term.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is nearing oversold territory, which could signal an upcoming reversal or slowdown in the bearish momentum.
Ichimoku Analysis:
The pair is below the Ichimoku cloud, reinforcing the bearish sentiment, but any upward movement through the cloud could signal a change in trend.
Trade Direction: BEARISH to NEUTRAL
Emphasis Trade Probability: Approximately 55% given the proximity to the oversold condition on the RSI, suggesting a potential for reversal despite the current bearish trend.
🎯 Targets for Taking Profits:
Sell:
1st Target (1st Support): 0.6519
2nd Target (2nd Support): 0.6487
3rd Target (3rd Support): 0.6448
❌ Stop Loss Guidelines:
Sell: If going short, set the stop loss just above the 1st Resistance level at 0.6590.
Suggestion: Traders could consider a short position with caution, setting targets at 0.6519, 0.6487, and 0.6448, while placing a stop loss at 0.6590 to manage risk. The approach to oversold territory suggests monitoring the trade closely for signs of reversal.
Yesterday's Trend: The AUDUSD was on a downtrend, which may continue unless a reversal signal is confirmed.
Volatility: There is increased volatility as indicated by the RSI approaching oversold levels, which could lead to sharper price movements.
Intraday Forex Signal for USDCAD – January 18, 2024
Pair: USDCAD
Pivot Point: 1.3510
Market Trend Analysis:
Bollinger Bands: USDCAD is trading near the upper Bollinger Band, indicating a strong upward trend but also the potential for a pullback as it approaches the upper band limit.
Moving Averages: The pair is above its moving averages, suggesting a continued bullish trend.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is in the higher region approaching overbought territory, which may indicate the momentum could start to weaken and reverse.
Ichimoku Analysis:
The price is above the Ichimoku cloud, which is typically a bullish signal; however, the distance from the cloud could suggest a strong trend or overextension.
Trade Direction: BULLISH
Emphasis Trade Probability: Approximately 70% based on the bullish trend indicated by the Bollinger Bands and the moving averages, despite the RSI nearing overbought levels.
🎯 Targets for Taking Profits:
Buy:
1st Target (1st Resistance): 1.3539
2nd Target (2nd Resistance): 1.3574
3rd Target (3rd Resistance): 1.3603
❌ Stop Loss Guidelines:
Buy: If going long, set the stop loss just below the 1st Support level at 1.3475.
Suggestion: Traders might consider entering a long position given the current upward momentum, with a first target of 1.3539, followed by 1.3574 and 1.3603. A stop loss could be strategically placed at 1.3475 to mitigate risk.
Yesterday's Trend: The USDCAD pair showed bullish behavior, which appears to be continuing.
Volatility: There is a notable increase in volatility as the price approaches the upper Bollinger Band, suggesting a potential increase in price fluctuations.
Intraday Forex Signal for EURGBP – January 18, 2024
Pair: EURGBP
Pivot Point: 0.8590
Market Trend Analysis:
Bollinger Bands: EURGBP is currently trading near the lower Bollinger Band, which could indicate overselling and the potential for a bullish reversal if it bounces off this level.
Moving Averages: The pair is trading below the moving averages, suggesting a bearish trend in the short term.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is trending near the oversold area, suggesting that the pair might be due for a reversal or a relief rally soon.
Ichimoku Analysis:
The pair is below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating bearish sentiment; however, if the price moves back into the cloud, it could signal a trend reversal or consolidation.
Trade Direction: NEUTRAL to BULLISH bias
Emphasis Trade Probability: Approximately 55% considering the potential for a bounce back from the oversold condition, despite the current bearish momentum.
🎯 Targets for Taking Profits:
Buy:
1st Target (1st Resistance): 0.8620
2nd Target (2nd Resistance): 0.8650
3rd Target (3rd Resistance): 0.8670
❌ Stop Loss Guidelines:
Buy: If going long, set the stop loss just below the 1st Support level at 0.8560.
Suggestion: Traders could consider a cautious long position if the price shows signs of bouncing back from the lower Bollinger Band, with incremental targets at 0.8620, 0.8650, and 0.8670, and a stop loss at 0.8560 to manage risk.
Yesterday's Trend: The EURGBP showed signs of a downtrend, which may persist unless there's a clear reversal signal.
Volatility: The volatility is moderate, but the proximity to the oversold RSI may lead to increased market sensitivity and potential for reversal movements.
Disclaimer: These Forex Trade Signals are based on the current charts and market conditions. Always conduct your own analysis and consider risk management strategies before entering any trade. Markets are dynamic, and conditions can change rapidly.
As with all investments, your capital is at risk. Investments can fall and rise and you may get back less than you invested.
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