Gold Under Pressure:
Spot gold fell slightly below $2,000 an ounce amid hot U.S. CPI data.
Gold prices are under strain as higher expected Fed rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
Analysts eye $1,975 to $1,978 as the next potential support level for gold.
Rate Cut Bets Impact:
May and June rate cut bets recede, clouding the gold outlook.
Traders are less optimistic about early rate cuts, with a 51% chance still seen for a June cut.
Persistent inflation expectations dampen the immediate recovery potential for gold.
Copper Prices Trending Down:
Copper futures edge towards a three-month low due to a strong dollar and economic growth concerns.
The discovery of a significant copper deposit in Zambia looms over future supply, though immediate effects are limited.
Oil Prices Slip:
Oil prices decline as U.S. crude stocks rise more than expected.
Brent and WTI futures experience marginal drops amidst inventory builds and rate cut outlook adjustments.
The market balances bearish crude inventory data against significant drops in gasoline and distillate stocks.
Currency Strength and OPEC Supply Concerns:
A stronger dollar following U.S. CPI data adds pressure to commodity prices.
OPEC's adherence to production cuts is questioned, with some members not fully complying, affecting market sentiment.
Commodities Trading Signals
Asset: Gold (XAU/USD)
Date: February 14, 2024
Pivot Point: 2004.68
Trade Direction: BEARISH
Trade Confidence: Moderate - The gold price has fallen below the key psychological level of $2,000, suggesting bearish pressure influenced by the stronger dollar and the shift in interest rate expectations.
Previous Day's Trend Analysis:
Gold has broken through a significant support level, and the continuation of losses suggests a bearish trend might extend into today's session.
Today's Market Trend Analysis:
Volatility: ATR indicates increased volatility, which is common during significant price moves.
Moving Averages (MA): Price below short-term moving averages indicates a bearish trend.
Ichimoku Cloud: Trading below the cloud suggests a bearish trend.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): RSI below 40 suggests bearish momentum and potential oversold conditions.
Bollinger Bands: Price breaking below the lower band could indicate an oversold market but supports the bearish momentum.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): MACD below the signal line confirms the bearish momentum.
Volume Oscillator: A negative volume oscillator indicates significant selling volume.
Fundamentals: The latest CPI data has reinforced the expectation that the Fed will maintain higher interest rates for longer, diminishing the appeal of non-yielding gold.
🎯 Profit Targets:
Sell:
1st Target (1st Support): 1990.00
2nd Target (2nd Support): 1980.00
3rd Target (3rd Support): 1975.00
❌ Stop Loss Guidelines:
Sell: Place stop loss above the pivot point, around 2006.00, to limit exposure should the market sentiment reverse.
Suggestion:
Considering the break below $2,000 and the current market sentiment, a bearish position may be taken with appropriate stop losses to account for the possibility of a bounce back from oversold conditions.
Viewpoint Recap:
Gold’s trend is bearish with moderate confidence, influenced by the U.S. dollar's strength and anticipation of the Fed's rate policy. Technical indicators suggest the potential for further downside, but caution is warranted due to the already significant recent drop.
Asset: Silver (XAG/USD)
Date: February 14, 2024
Pivot Point: 22.050
Trade Direction: BEARISH
Trade Confidence: Moderate - Silver prices are following gold’s downtrend, with technical indicators supporting a bearish outlook due to the strong U.S. dollar and anticipated longer-term high rates from the Fed.
Previous Day's Trend Analysis:
Silver showed a downward trend, closing near the lows and breaking below recent support levels, suggesting a potential continuation of the bearish trend.
Today's Market Trend Analysis:
Volatility: The Average True Range (ATR) indicates moderate volatility in silver prices.
Moving Averages (MA): Prices are below short-term moving averages, supporting a bearish trend.
Ichimoku Cloud: Price below the Ichimoku Cloud indicates a bearish bias.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): RSI below 40 indicates bearish momentum and potential oversold conditions.
Bollinger Bands: Prices are approaching the lower Bollinger Band, signaling bearish price action.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): MACD line is below the signal line, showing bearish momentum.
Volume Oscillator: No volume data provided; therefore, the volume trend is not clear.
Fundamentals: Silver prices are pressured by the stronger dollar and the shift in monetary policy outlook, as higher interest rates reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver.
🎯 Profit Targets:
Sell:
1st Target (1st Support): 21.900
2nd Target (2nd Support): 21.750
3rd Target (3rd Support): 21.600
❌ Stop Loss Guidelines:
Sell: A stop loss can be placed above the pivot point at around 22.100 to manage risk.
Suggestion:
Engage in a sell trade if the price remains below the pivot point, aiming for the specified support levels with a stop loss just above the pivot to protect against potential reversals. Monitor the RSI for any signs of a reversal due to potential oversold conditions.
Viewpoint Recap:
Silver shows a moderate bearish signal for today, with the market sentiment and technical indicators suggesting downward pressure. Careful position management with stop losses is advised due to the volatility in the commodities market.
Asset: West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTI)
Date: February 14, 2024
Pivot Point: 77.76
Trade Direction: BULLISH
Trade Confidence: Moderate - The WTI has shown resilience above the pivot point, and technical indicators are leaning towards a bullish trend, despite some concerns over inventory builds and refinery outages.
Previous Day's Trend Analysis:
WTI has been oscillating around the pivot level but closed near the upper range, which could indicate bullish sentiment.
Today's Market Trend Analysis:
Volatility: ATR shows moderate volatility, which may lead to sizable price movements.
Moving Averages (MA): Price is around the moving averages, suggesting a potential for a bullish breakout.
Ichimoku Cloud: Price near the upper range of the cloud, pointing to a possible bullish trend.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): RSI is near the overbought territory, indicating strong buying pressure but also caution for potential pullback.
Bollinger Bands: Price hovering near the upper Bollinger Band, usually a sign of strength, but caution is advised for an extended market.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): MACD line is above the signal line, suggesting bullish momentum.
Volume Oscillator: No volume data provided, so market momentum cannot be confirmed through volume analysis.
Fundamentals: Inventory builds and the Fed's rate decisions could weigh on oil prices, but recent resilience in price suggests underlying bullish sentiment.
🎯 Profit Targets:
Buy:
1st Target (1st Resistance): 78.00
2nd Target (2nd Resistance): 78.50
3rd Target (3rd Resistance): 79.00
❌ Stop Loss Guidelines:
Buy: A stop loss can be set below the pivot point, at around 77.50, to protect against any potential reversal in trend.
Suggestion:
Initiating a long position with targets set at key resistance levels could be considered if the price maintains above the pivot. Monitoring the RSI for overbought signals and MACD for momentum shifts will be important to manage the trade effectively.
Viewpoint Recap:
WTI crude oil presents a moderate bullish signal for today, supported by technical indicators and the price's ability to stay above the pivot level. However, external factors like inventory data and interest rate expectations should be closely watched, as they can influence price direction and volatility.
Asset: Brent Crude Oil (UKOUSD)
Date: February 14, 2024
Pivot Point: 82.63
Trade Direction: BULLISH
Trade Confidence: Moderate - Brent Crude Oil is showing signs of an uptrend with a pivot point support that can foster bullish momentum, despite overarching market concerns that may cap gains.
Previous Day's Trend Analysis:
Brent has been trading above the pivot point, suggesting a possible bullish bias as it closed near the day’s high.
Today's Market Trend Analysis:
Volatility: The ATR indicates moderate volatility, signifying possible price swings.
Moving Averages (MA): Brent is trading around its moving averages, signaling a potential trend direction change to bullish.
Ichimoku Cloud: Price action is above the Ichimoku Cloud, suggesting bullish momentum.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): RSI is above 50, indicating a bullish market but not yet overbought.
Bollinger Bands: Price is in the upper half of the bands, signaling bullish price action.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): The MACD line is above the signal line, indicating bullish momentum.
Volume Oscillator: No volume data provided, so volume-based momentum cannot be assessed.
Fundamentals: Market dynamics, such as inventory builds and Fed rate expectations, play a critical role but Brent’s current price action suggests bullish sentiment.
🎯 Profit Targets:
Buy:
1st Target (1st Resistance): 83.00
2nd Target (2nd Resistance): 83.50
3rd Target (3rd Resistance): 84.00
❌ Stop Loss Guidelines:
Buy: A stop loss could be placed below the pivot point, around 82.50, to manage the risk of a sudden downtrend.
Suggestion:
Entering a long position may be considered if the price remains above the pivot point, targeting the resistance levels. Monitoring the RSI for overbought conditions and the MACD for momentum changes will be essential for trade management.
Viewpoint Recap:
Brent crude oil displays a moderate bullish signal, with the current technical setup favoring an upward movement. However, it's important to stay updated on market news and adjust the trade strategy accordingly due to potential shifts in market sentiment influenced by global economic factors.
Asset: Copper (COPPER)
Date: February 14, 2024
Pivot Point: 3.6971
Trade Direction: BEARISH
Trade Confidence: Moderate - The current technical indicators for copper suggest a bearish sentiment, with the price recently showing a decline and the potential for further downside movement.
Previous Day's Trend Analysis:
Copper has been trending downward, with the price currently below the recent highs, indicating the potential continuation of a bearish trend.
Today's Market Trend Analysis:
Volatility: The ATR indicates moderate volatility, with potential for notable price swings.
Moving Averages (MA): Copper is trading below its short-term moving averages, which supports a bearish outlook.
Ichimoku Cloud: The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating bearish momentum.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is below 50, which typically indicates bearish momentum.
Bollinger Bands: Copper is trading closer to the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting bearish pressure.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): The MACD line is below the signal line, which supports the bearish trend.
Volume Oscillator: No volume data is provided; hence, volume-based momentum cannot be assessed.
Fundamentals: A stronger dollar and concerns over economic growth are negatively impacting copper prices, alongside expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates which could reduce demand for industrial metals like copper.
🎯 Profit Targets:
Sell:
1st Target (1st Support): 3.6750
2nd Target (2nd Support): 3.6500
3rd Target (3rd Support): 3.6250
❌ Stop Loss Guidelines:
Sell: Place a stop loss above the pivot point, around 3.7100, to mitigate risk in case of a reversal.
Suggestion:
A sell position may be considered if prices remain below the pivot point, aiming for the identified support levels. It is crucial to monitor changes in the MACD and RSI for signs of momentum shifts or potential reversals in the trend.
Viewpoint Recap:
Copper is exhibiting a moderate bearish trend, influenced by the stronger dollar and the interest rate outlook. However, the geopolitical landscape and other macroeconomic factors can affect the commodity's price, so staying informed on these aspects is essential for trading strategy adjustments.
Disclaimer: These Commodities Trading Signals are based on the current charts and market conditions. Always conduct your own analysis and consider risk management strategies before entering any trade. Markets are dynamic, and conditions can change rapidly.
As with all investments, your capital is at risk. Investments can fall and rise and you may get back less than you invested.