- Oil prices dipped early in Asia on Monday after Israel's strikes in Gaza concluded, reducing some supply concerns from the Middle East.
- Brent crude futures fell 0.4% to $81.88 a barrel, while WTI crude futures also dropped 0.4% to $76.53 a barrel.
- The recent escalation in the Israel-Palestinian conflict had previously driven a 6% price increase last week.
- In the U.S., an increase in oil and natural gas rigs suggests a potential rise in production, with a return to record output of 13.3 million bpd.
- Trading volumes are expected to be low in Asia due to regional holidays, with markets in China and other countries closed.
- Gold retreats to a range between $2,000 to $2,050 in February, with CPI data and Fed commentary anticipated to influence future movements.
- Copper futures decline 0.4% as the new Zambian copper deposit indicates a possible future increase in global supplies.
Commodities Trading Signals
Asset: Gold (XAU/USD)
Date: February 13, 2024
Pivot Point: 2,025.25
Trade Direction: NEUTRAL TO BEARISH
Trade Confidence: Low to Moderate - Due to the gold market's sensitivity to the dollar's strength and the upcoming inflation data, which could influence Federal Reserve policy.
Previous Day's Trend Analysis:
The previous trading session closed slightly below the open, indicating a minor bearish sentiment.
Today's Market Trend Analysis:
Volatility: Moderate volatility with an ATR of 6.35 suggests potential for noticeable price movements.
RSI: Near the midpoint, indicating a lack of decisive momentum.
MACD: Hovering around the signal line, indicating a market lacking direction.
Ichimoku Cloud: Price within the cloud suggests market indecision.
🎯 Profit Targets
Given the current market conditions and the pivot point provided, profit targets for a bearish perspective might be set just below key psychological levels or support areas:
1st Target (1st Support): 2,020.00
2nd Target (2nd Support): 2,015.00
3rd Target (3rd Support): 2,010.00
❌ Stop Loss Guidelines
In a neutral to bearish market, a stop loss might be placed above the pivot point and potential resistance levels:
Stop Loss: 2,030.00
Suggestion:
Traders should watch the inflation data release closely as it may cause significant price volatility. In the meantime, considering the neutral to bearish sentiment, trades may be entered based on a break below the pivot point with the above profit targets and stop loss in place to manage risk. Adjustments should be made quickly in response to the actual data release, which is a key event for the gold market.
Viewpoint Recap:
The current technical setup provides a neutral to bearish signal for gold, with moderate trade confidence. The anticipation of key inflation data is a significant factor that could influence the market. The suggested trading levels are based on the technical analysis, with caution advised due to potential volatility from upcoming fundamental events.
Asset: Silver (XAG/USD)
Date: February 13, 2024
Pivot Point: 22.831
Trade Direction: BEARISH
Trade Confidence: Moderate - The RSI is trending towards the overbought territory, and the MACD is above the signal line but showing signs of converging, which can precede a bearish crossover. The recent price action below the pivot point further supports a bearish outlook.
Previous Day's Trend Analysis:
Silver showed a marginal downturn, indicating a slight bearish sentiment as it closed lower than the opening price.
Today's Market Trend Analysis:
Volatility: The ATR indicates a moderate level of volatility, which may facilitate price movement.
RSI: Approaching overbought levels, which may suggest a potential pullback.
MACD: Above the signal line, indicating bullish momentum in the recent past, but the convergence may signal a loss of momentum.
Ichimoku Cloud: Price is above the Ichimoku Cloud, which typically suggests bullish sentiment. However, proximity to the pivot and other indicators suggest a potential reversal.
🎯 Profit Targets
Based on the bearish signal, potential profit targets for short positions could be:
1st Target (1st Support): 22.70
2nd Target (2nd Support): 22.60
3rd Target (3rd Support): 22.50
❌ Stop Loss Guidelines
Considering the potential for reversal and the moderate volatility, a stop loss for a short position could be:
Stop Loss: 22.95 (just above the recent highs and the pivot point to account for a margin of error)
Suggestion:
With the technical indicators suggesting a potential pullback, traders might consider taking short positions, especially if there are any bearish confirmations following the inflation data release. The recommended profit targets and stop loss are set to manage risks while aiming to capitalize on the anticipated bearish momentum. Adjustments should be made in response to significant economic news or changes in the technical setup.
Viewpoint Recap:
The technical analysis of Silver indicates a moderate bearish signal for February 13, 2024. While the price is above the Ichimoku Cloud suggesting a bullish trend, the RSI and MACD indicate that a reversal could be imminent, especially considering the pivot point. The given trade setup aims to balance the moderate confidence in the bearish direction with the need for risk management.
Asset: West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTI)
Date: February 13, 2024
Pivot Point: 76.52
Trade Direction: BULLISH
Trade Confidence: Moderate - The RSI is not in overbought territory, which may allow room for upward movement. The MACD is above the signal line, indicating bullish momentum. However, the volume oscillator shows significant negative volume, which could indicate a lack of strong buying pressure.
Previous Day's Trend Analysis:
WTI opened at 75.87 and reached a high of 77.09 before settling at 76.92, showing an upward movement for the day.
Today's Market Trend Analysis:
Volatility: The ATR indicates a moderate level of volatility, suggesting that there could be a reasonable range of price movement.
RSI: Mid-range, indicating that there could be potential for the price to move either way, but not overbought which can be positive for bulls.
MACD: The MACD is above its signal line, suggesting that the current trend is bullish.
Ichimoku Cloud: Price is above the Ichimoku Cloud, which typically indicates a bullish trend.
🎯 Profit Targets
Based on the bullish trend, potential profit targets for long positions could be:
1st Target (1st Resistance): 77.00
2nd Target (2nd Resistance): 77.50
3rd Target (3rd Resistance): 78.00
❌ Stop Loss Guidelines
Considering the moderate volatility and the current bullish indicators, a stop loss for a long position could be set below:
Stop Loss: 76.00 (just below the pivot point to allow for market fluctuations)
Suggestion:
Traders might consider taking long positions given the bullish technical indicators, setting profit targets near resistance levels as provided. The stop loss just below the pivot point offers a conservative risk management strategy while allowing for some market movement. However, traders should also keep an eye on global economic news and any potential geopolitical events that could affect oil prices, as these factors could introduce volatility into the market.
Viewpoint Recap:
The technical analysis indicates a bullish trend for WTI on February 13, 2024, with moderate confidence due to the current position above the Ichimoku Cloud and a MACD above the signal line. The trade suggestion is to consider a long position with set profit targets and a stop loss, all while monitoring the market for changes that may come with new economic data releases or geopolitical events.
Asset: Brent Crude Oil (UKOUSD)
Date: February 13, 2024
Pivot Point: 81.65
Trade Direction: BULLISH
Trade Confidence: Moderate - The technical indicators suggest bullish momentum, with the RSI not yet in the overbought territory and the MACD above the signal line. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud, reinforcing the bullish sentiment.
Previous Day's Trend Analysis:
On February 12, 2024, Brent Crude Oil prices showed a slight increase, indicating a bullish sentiment with the close higher than the open.
Today's Market Trend Analysis:
Volatility: The ATR is at a moderate level, suggesting a decent range for potential price movement.
RSI: Slightly above the midpoint but not overbought, which may allow for further upside.
MACD: The MACD line is above the signal line, indicating current bullish momentum.
Ichimoku Cloud: The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud, which typically suggests a bullish trend.
🎯 Profit Targets
Assuming the bullish trend continues, potential profit targets for long positions might be set at:
1st Target (1st Resistance): 82.00
2nd Target (2nd Resistance): 82.50
3rd Target (3rd Resistance): 83.00
❌ Stop Loss Guidelines
A stop loss for a long position might be placed below the pivot point and a recent swing low to mitigate risk:
Stop Loss: 81.30 (below the pivot point)
Suggestion:
Traders may consider entering long positions given the bullish indications from the RSI and MACD, with profit targets near the next resistance levels. The suggested stop loss below the pivot point is to protect against any sudden bearish reversal. It's important to remain vigilant for any geopolitical events or supply changes that could quickly alter the oil market's dynamics.
Viewpoint Recap:
The technical analysis for Brent Crude Oil suggests a moderate bullish outlook for February 13, 2024, supported by the price's position above the Ichimoku Cloud and bullish momentum indicators. The trading strategy recommends long positions with specific profit targets and a stop loss, taking into account the current market trends and technical signals.
Asset: Copper
Date: February 13, 2024
Pivot Point: 3.7057
Trade Direction: BULLISH
Trade Confidence: Moderate - The RSI is above the midpoint heading towards overbought territory, and the MACD is above the signal line indicating bullish momentum. The recent price action above the pivot point further supports a bullish outlook.
Previous Day's Trend Analysis:
Copper closed at 3.724, which was higher than the open at 3.6895, indicating a bullish trend for the day.
Today's Market Trend Analysis:
Volatility: The ATR is moderate, suggesting there may be room for price movement.
RSI: Approaching overbought territory which can indicate strong buying pressure, but also the potential for a pullback if it crosses too far.
MACD: Above the signal line and increasing, which signifies bullish momentum.
Ichimoku Cloud: The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud, reinforcing the bullish trend.
🎯 Profit Targets
Based on the bullish momentum, potential profit targets for long positions could be:
1st Target (1st Resistance): 3.730
2nd Target (2nd Resistance): 3.755
3rd Target (3rd Resistance): 3.780
❌ Stop Loss Guidelines
A stop loss for a long position might be set just below recent swing lows to manage risk:
Stop Loss: 3.690
Suggestion:
Traders considering long positions in Copper may look for opportunities as the price is currently above the pivot point, and the technical indicators suggest bullish momentum. The identified profit targets provide goals for positive price movement, and the stop loss below recent lows offers a cautious risk management strategy. It is important to monitor any changes in market sentiment, particularly any economic news that could impact commodity prices.
Viewpoint Recap:
The technical indicators for Copper suggest a bullish signal for February 13, 2024, with the RSI and MACD supporting the current upward trend. The strategy for trade includes entering long positions with set profit targets and a defined stop loss, while keeping an eye out for market changes that may affect the commodity's price trajectory.
Disclaimer: These Commodities Trading Signals are based on the current charts and market conditions. Always conduct your own analysis and consider risk management strategies before entering any trade. Markets are dynamic, and conditions can change rapidly.
As with all investments, your capital is at risk. Investments can fall and rise and you may get back less than you invested.