Forex & Gold Trade Setups Ahead of London Open – April 10, 2025
- forex368 Forex Education
- 2 days ago
- 3 min read
Macro Recap – U.S. Session (April 9)
Markets roared higher Wednesday after President Trump abruptly paused most new U.S. tariffs for 90 days, triggering the sharpest single-day rally in the S&P 500 since 2020. But the tariff reprieve came with strings — China was excluded and hit with a fresh 125% levy, prompting immediate retaliation and further escalation in the trade conflict.
Elsewhere, Vietnam entered trade talks with the U.S., a potential structural shift as manufacturers increasingly pivot to a “China+1” strategy.
The bond market saw violent swings, with 30-year Treasury yields surging and reversing within hours. Safe-havens like JPY and CHF gained back ground as traders looked ahead to today’s U.S. CPI release at 13:30 BST — a critical data point in the face of inflationary tariff risk.
Fundamental Outlook – Asia & Europe Sessions
Asian equities rallied broadly, led by Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (+4%) despite the yuan sinking to a 17-year low.
European equity futures are higher, tracking Wall Street, but risk appetite is tentative.
USD is mixed: strong vs. commodity currencies, weak against JPY and CHF.
Traders are eyeing U.S. CPI for signs of tariff-driven inflation pressure.
Bond volatility has cooled, but positioning is nervous ahead of inflation data.
Technical Outlook & Forex Trade Setups (4H Charts)
EUR/USD – Bullish Structure Pauses Under 1.10
EUR/USD remains bid on the higher timeframes, but bulls are struggling to break cleanly above 1.1000. Bollinger Bands tightening suggests a potential breakout after CPI. RSI is neutral.
Bias: Neutral to bearish if CPI surprises hot
Entry: 1.0980
Stop Loss: 1.1035
Take Profit 1: 1.0915
Take Profit 2: 1.0850
Extension Target: 1.0775
USD/JPY – Bounce Holding, But Fragile
The pair rebounded off lows near 145, reclaiming the Bollinger mid-band, but has yet to clear short-term resistance at 147.50. RSI is recovering but momentum is weak.
Bias: Buy dips cautiously unless CPI spikes hot
Entry: 146.30
Stop Loss: 145.55
Take Profit 1: 147.80
Take Profit 2: 148.60
Extension Target: 149.20
Gold (XAU/USD) – CPI Will Dictate Direction
Gold ripped back above $3,100, now consolidating around $3,120. RSI is elevated, and price action is coiled for a breakout. CPI will likely be the trigger.
Bias: Event-driven breakout setup
Buy Setup Above: 3,140
Stop Loss: 3,099
TP1: 3,180
TP2: 3,210
Sell Setup Below: 3,100
Stop Loss: 3,140
TP1: 3,050
TP2: 3,010
WTI Crude Oil – Bounced Off Lows, Eyeing $63
WTI recovered after the recent collapse to $55, now trading just above $61. Price is pressing Bollinger mid-band. A move above $62 opens room toward $65. CPI impact on USD is key.
Bias: Cautiously bullish above $61
Entry: 61.20
Stop Loss: 59.80
Take Profit 1: 63.00
Take Profit 2: 65.50
Extension Target: 67.80
FTSE 100 – Rally Capped Below 8,100
FTSE 100 surged off the 7,600 zone, tagging resistance at 8,080. Price is consolidating as RSI cools. CPI volatility could determine whether the breakout sticks or fails.
Bias: Bullish if holding above 8,000
Entry: 8,015
Stop Loss: 7,945
Take Profit 1: 8,100
Take Profit 2: 8,180
Extension Target: 8,250
Final Thoughts
Markets have shifted from panic to euphoria on the back of tariff policy whiplash, but with U.S. inflation due today, expect another sharp repricing. CPI will either validate the relief rally or knock risk sentiment back into reverse.
Traders should be nimble, avoid chasing, and let post-data structure develop before scaling in.
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