Forex Outlook – New York Session | Thursday, April 10, 2025
- forex368 Forex Education
- 2 days ago
- 2 min read
CPI Miss Calms Dollar, But Tariff Tensions Keep Markets on Edge
Macro Recap – U.S. Session (April 9)
U.S. March CPI came in softer than expected, but markets failed to rally meaningfully as traders weighed the longer-term impact of Trump’s new China tariffs.
Headline CPI m/m: -0.1% (forecast: +0.1%)
Core CPI m/m: +0.1% (forecast: +0.3%)
CPI y/y: 2.4% (prev: 2.8%)
Core y/y: 2.8% (prev: 3.1%)
Despite the disinflationary print, risk sentiment soured late in the European session. Traders remain focused on a deteriorating growth outlook as new 125% tariffs on China and retaliatory measures begin to bite. China imposed 84% tariffs on U.S. goods and targeted 18 American firms.
Equity futures turned lower overnight. The U.S. dollar weakened modestly, while Treasuries caught a bid, with the 30-year yield dropping to 4.62%. Gold continued its recovery, while oil remained weak under $60.
Fundamental Outlook – Asia & Europe Sessions
Asia traded mixed with strong performance in JPY and Gold.
AUD saw little reaction to RBA Gov Bullock's comments, which leaned cautious.
European equities opened flat to slightly lower, tracking weaker U.S. futures.
Rate cut expectations have firmed again, with Fed Funds Futures pricing over 70% probability of a cut in June.
With recession risk and trade war escalation in focus, the dollar remains vulnerable. Safe havens are showing strength into the New York open.
Technical Outlook – Updated 4H Charts
Price: 5,357
Bias: Bearish below 5,400
Structure: Rejection from upper Bollinger Band after post-CPI rally
Key Levels:
Resistance: 5,400 / 5,450
Support: 5,250 / 5,180
Trade Setup:
Entry: Sell below 5,340
Stop Loss: 5,400
Take Profit 1: 5,250
Take Profit 2: 5,180
Extension: 5,100
Price: 1.1092
Bias: Bullish continuation
Structure: Clean breakout from range high, following CPI-driven dollar weakness
Key Levels:
Resistance: 1.1120 / 1.1150
Support: 1.1050 / 1.1000
Trade Setup:
Entry: Buy on pullback to 1.1060
Stop Loss: 1.1025
Take Profit 1: 1.1120
Take Profit 2: 1.1150
Extension: 1.1180
Price: 145.46
Bias: Bearish
Structure: Lower highs and failed bounce amid yen strength
Key Levels:
Resistance: 146.00 / 146.80
Support: 145.00 / 144.50
Trade Setup:
Entry: Sell below 145.80
Stop Loss: 146.30
Take Profit 1: 145.00
Take Profit 2: 144.60
Extension: 144.00
Price: 3,124
Bias: Bullish
Structure: Bounce from $3,000 support holds; CPI miss supports further upside
Key Levels:
Resistance: 3,140 / 3,170
Support: 3,100 / 3,070
Trade Setup:
Entry: Buy on pullback to 3,110
Stop Loss: 3,085
Take Profit 1: 3,140
Take Profit 2: 3,165
Extension: 3,180
Price: 59.59
Bias: Bearish to neutral
Structure: Sideways near lows, no strong bullish reversal yet
Key Levels:
Resistance: 60.30 / 62.00
Support: 58.80 / 57.50
Trade Setup:
Entry: Sell below 58.80 (on breakout)
Stop Loss: 59.60
Take Profit 1: 57.80
Take Profit 2: 56.50
Key Takeaways for Traders
U.S. CPI has cooled, but risk assets aren’t buying it.
Tariffs are now the dominant macro driver, with markets pricing in deeper Fed cuts.
Gold and EUR/USD showing resilience, while USD/JPY and equities look vulnerable.
Expect headline risk throughout today’s session, especially out of Washington and Beijing.
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