Gold Price Forecast – London Session Update | 11 April 2025

Gold Breaks $3,220 – Is $3,300 in Sight?

Gold (XAU/USD) continues its powerful breakout during the London session, printing a fresh all-time high above $3,220. Momentum remains firmly with the bulls as risk-off flows dominate global markets following a major escalation in US-China trade tensions.

China’s retaliation with 125% tariffs on US goods, following Trump’s aggressive 145% hike, has triggered sharp demand for gold amid rising economic instability, a collapsing US dollar, and speculation around deeper Fed rate cuts.

Macro Overview – What’s Driving XAU/USD?

• Trade War Escalation: Trump’s latest tariff barrage has led to a swift and aggressive response from Beijing. The result? A global risk reset that favours gold.

• US CPI Miss & PPI Data in Focus: Yesterday’s inflation miss increased bets on Fed cuts. Today’s PPI and UoM inflation expectations are due at 1:30 GMT and could trigger sharp moves.

• Fed Independence at Risk: Legal changes could allow Trump to remove Powell, adding a layer of political risk to markets already on edge.

• Dollar Slumps: The DXY hit a decade low, further supporting gold’s rally.

• UBS View: Gold could reach $3,500 by end of 2025, with strong institutional buying and constrained supply.

Technical Outlook – XAU/USD (4H)

Price: $3,225.39

RSI: 78 (overbought)

Bias: Still bullish, but technically stretched

Support Levels:

• $3,200 – short-term support

• $3,061 – 21-day SMA

• $3,030 – breakout base

• $3,000 – psychological and technical floor

Resistance Levels:

• $3,250 – key resistance and round number

• $3,300 – major psychological target

• $3,320 – extension zone

Gold is trading well above its upper Bollinger Band, suggesting strong momentum but also a risk of short-term exhaustion. Momentum traders may look to fade extremes above $3,250, while buyers will eye dips into $3,200 and $3,180.

Kyri’s Thought of the Session

“Gold is charging higher, but saturation may be setting in. Governments and institutions have been heavy buyers—wisely so given Trump’s tariff-driven chaos. But with gold in price discovery mode, any positive macro surprise could spark a sharp correction. Right now, trade the rumour, stay nimble, and expect wild volatility.”

Trade Setup – XAU/USD | 11 April 2025

Direction	Entry Zone	Stop Loss	Take Profit 1	Take Profit 2	Extension Target
Long	$3,210–$3,220	$3,180	$3,250	$3,290	$3,300–$3,320
Short	$3,250–$3,265	$3,280	$3,220	$3,200	$3,170

Note: US PPI data at 1:30 GMT is a key volatility trigger. Position sizing and stop placement should reflect that.

Sentiment Snapshot

• UBS Forecast: $3,500 in 2025, with rally extending into 2026

• Goldman Sachs: $3,300 target by year-end

• Market Positioning: Growing ETF inflows and institutional demand. Tracking similar to 2020 but still below post-GFC peaks.

The macro environment—weak USD, negative real yields, geopolitical instability—continues to favour gold. But price action suggests short-term profit taking could emerge at extremes.

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About These Signals

These signals are not financial advice and are not part of any sales or promotion. They’re simply shared as part of my independent trading outlook—based on a combination of technical structure, fundamental context, and over 30 years of industry experience.

Each idea reflects how I’m reading the market at that moment. They're designed to spark thinking, not push trades.

Use them to inform your own view—never to replace it.

Always manage your risk. Always do your own research.

These market ideas are shared as references for traders—especially swing traders, day traders, and scalpers.

Kyri Kyriacou | Business Growth Strategist | Financial Markets Specialist