Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Holds Firm Above $3,100 as CPI, Tariffs Steal Spotlight – April 10, 2025
- forex368 Forex Education
- 2 days ago
- 2 min read
Gold price steadies above $3,100 in early Europe as traders weigh US CPI inflation risks and intensifying US-China tariff blows. Is it time to chase the breakout – or fade the froth? Let’s dive in.
Macro Context – What’s Driving Gold?
Tariff tantrums & inflation anxieties are at the heart of today’s gold momentum:
President Trump’s 125% tariff spike on Chinese goods sent shockwaves through the bond and FX markets.
Beijing retaliated fast, hiking tariffs to 84% on US goods — boosting demand for safe havens like Gold.
Meanwhile, today’s US CPI report (13:30 GMT) could solidify Fed cut bets, or reset rate expectations sharply.
Markets expect CPI year-on-year to ease to 2.6%, and core CPI to fall slightly to 3.0%.
Bottom line: If CPI is soft, Fed cut bets jump, and Gold could rip toward all-time highs. A hot print? We may see a knee-jerk dump back toward $3,050.
Fundamental Outlook – Asia & Europe Session
China CPI came in below expectations (-0.1% y/y vs +0.1% forecast), reinforcing disinflationary trends.
Yet Gold price ignored soft Chinese data as tariff tensions override domestic figures.
European session sees some weakness in German and EU industrial production, keeping EUR/USD under pressure and adding to USD bid-watch.
📈 Technical Outlook – XAU/USD 4H Chart (April 10, 2025)
Price Action Summary:
Gold has cleared $3,100, reclaiming the 50 EMA and riding the upper Bollinger Band.
RSI sits near 65, not yet overbought, but approaching exhaustion levels.
Bullish momentum holds for now, but CPI is the kingmaker.
Key Levels:
Zone | Level | Bias |
Resistance 2 | $3,168 | ATH target |
Resistance 1 | $3,150 | CPI breakout level |
Current Price | $3,114 | — |
Support 1 | $3,048 | Former SMA resistance |
Support 2 | $2,998–3,000 | Critical bull/bear line |
Trade Plan – April 10, 2025 (CPI Day)
Scenario 1: CPI < Forecast (Soft Print)📈 Buy on dips toward $3,100 or breakout above $3,150
Entry: $3,108–3,115 (on pullback) or $3,153 (breakout)
SL: $3,080
TP1: $3,168
TP2: $3,200
Extension: $3,225 (FOMO chase if CPI shocks)
Scenario 2: CPI > Forecast (Hot Print)📉 Sell into rejection below $3,150
Entry: $3,148–3,140
SL: $3,162
TP1: $3,080
TP2: $3,050
Extension: $2,998
⚠️ Avoid entering just before the CPI — let the volatility settle in the first 5–15 minutes.
Final Thoughts
Gold remains fundamentally supported by geopolitical tension, but today's CPI is a critical trigger. A soft number fuels new highs; a hot one triggers a flush.
Risk management is key — trade the reaction, not the guess.
Disclaimer
This post is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trade at your own risk.