US-China Tariffs Reignite Global Risk Sell-Off | Safe Havens Surge | Dollar Crushed

US-China Tariffs Reignite Global Risk Sell-Off | Safe Havens Surge | Dollar Crushed

Macro Recap – US Session (Thurs 10 April)

• PPI m/m came in weaker than expected at -0.4% vs 0.2% prior, fuelling hopes of disinflation.

• But Trump’s 125% tariff retaliation by China eclipsed all data.

• S&P 500 dropped sharply, snapping a relief rally, as institutional flow shifted to defensive assets.

• The USD Index slumped 1% to a six-month low.

• Gold broke $3,200, now in full breakout mode.

• Crude oil remains fragile below $60, pricing in collapsing global demand.

• Jamie Dimon (JPM) warned of “turbulent waters” and “recession risk” due to trade policy.

  
  

Fundamental Outlook – Asia & Europe

• Asia session saw JPY and Gold dominate, with clear risk-off rotation.

• China’s 125% tariff bombshell is triggering broad-based de-risking.

• European equities followed the US lead lower. Bond yields are down, volatility is up.

• GBP GDP m/m surprised positively at +0.5%, giving Cable a short-term lift.

• ECB’s Lagarde said they’re ready to act if financial stability deteriorates further.

Kyri’s Thought of the Session

The last time tariffs got this aggressive, equity markets plunged and global growth flatlined. Right now, safe havens are telling the story. Gold is flying, the dollar’s collapsing, and the VIX is twitchy. This market doesn’t trust the narrative — and it’s right not to.

Technical Outlook (4H Chart Views)

📈 Gold (XAU/USD)

Price: 3,234

• Huge breakout above prior resistance at 3,160, now stretching into parabolic territory.

• RSI deeply overbought but no divergence—momentum intact.

• Volatility bands expanding, price hugging upper Bollinger.

Idea:

• Buy pullbacks to support at 3,200 / 3,180

• SL: 3,145

• TP1: 3,270

• TP2: 3,320

• Extension: 3,360

📉 USD/CHF

Price: 0.8125

• Multi-week bear trend intact, now reaching historically stretched RSI.

• Bearish structure remains below 0.8270.

Idea:

• Sell rallies into 0.8200–0.8230

• SL: 0.8315

• TP1: 0.8080

• TP2: 0.8020

• Extension: 0.7950

🛢️ Oil (WTI)

Price: 59.26

• Breakdown from $70 continues, with RSI struggling to lift above mid-line.

• Demand destruction narrative weighing heavy.

Idea:

• Sell below 60.00 / intraday rallies

• SL: 61.10

• TP1: 57.20

• TP2: 55.80

• Extension: 53.50

📉 S&P 500 (US500)

Price: 5,236

• Yesterday’s reversal from 5,400 failing to hold gains. Lower highs forming.

• RSI turned south again, Bollinger midline acting as resistance.

Idea:

• Sell below 5,250

• SL: 5,320

• TP1: 5,120

• TP2: 4,980

• Extension: 4,800

🧭 Market Summary

Asset	Bias	Key Levels
Gold	Bullish	Above 3,200
USD/CHF	Bearish	Below 0.8270
Oil	Bearish	Below 60.00
S&P 500	Bearish	Below 5,250

Message

 In Times of Crisis, Where Do Investors Flee?

• Gold is the classic safe-haven and now behaving exactly as it should: record highs, no ceiling in sight yet.

• CHF and JPY are gathering strength as risk currencies sell off.

• Bonds are bid but not yet “panic bought” — suggesting more downside risk in equities remains.

Key Risk Events – Friday (Apr 11)

Time (GMT)	Event	Forecast	Actual
13:30	US Core PPI m/m	0.3%	-0.1%
13:30	US PPI m/m	0.2%	-0.4%
15:00	UoM Consumer Sentiment (Prelim)	54.0	–
15:00	UoM Inflation Expectations (Prelim)	–	–

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