As we step into another crucial trading week, forex traders should prepare for high-impact economic events that will drive major currency pairs, gold, and oil. Based on this weeks economic calendar, key events include U.S. CPI, Fed Chair Powell’s testimony, and UK GDP data.
Here’s what traders need to focus on to position themselves effectively.
The Week That Was: Volatility, Trump’s Comments & Market Reactions
Last week, financial markets experienced heightened volatility as traders reacted to mixed U.S. data, central bank statements, and unexpected comments from former U.S. President Donald Trump.
His remarks about imposing new tariffs on China and revisiting NAFTA stirred risk aversion in the markets, causing a flight to safe-haven assets like gold. Meanwhile, the U.S. labor market showed resilience, adding to speculation that the Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts.
Gold surged to $2,886 before slightly retracing, while the U.S. dollar strengthened against major currencies, pushing EUR/USD to test 1.0325.
Oil prices remained under pressure, with WTI crude currently trading near $70.65, impacted by rising crude inventories and geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East.
Traders capitalized on rapid market swings, finding short-term opportunities in forex majors, commodities, and indices.
Key Events This Week (UK Time Zone)
Monday, February 10
2:00 PM EUR – ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Tuesday, February 11
12:15 PM GBP – BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
3:00 PM USD – Fed Chair Powell Testifies
Wednesday, February 12
1:30 PM USD – Core CPI m/m, CPI m/m, CPI y/y
3:00 PM USD – Fed Chair Powell Testifies
3:30 PM USD – Crude Oil Inventories
10:05 PM USD – FOMC Member Waller Speaks
Thursday, February 13
2:00 AM NZD – Inflation Expectations q/q
7:00 AM GBP – GDP m/m, Prelim GDP q/q
7:30 AM CHF – CPI m/m
1:30 PM USD – Core PPI m/m, PPI m/m, Unemployment Claims
Friday, February 14
1:30 PM USD – Core Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m
Forex Majors Outlook
U.S. Dollar (USD)
CPI inflation data on Wednesday is the major risk event. A strong reading could delay Fed rate cuts and support the dollar.
Retail Sales on Friday will show consumer strength; a weak print may pressure the USD lower.
Key Levels: DXY resistance at 108.60, support at 107.30.
Euro (EUR)
ECB President Lagarde’s speech could impact EUR/USD if policy stance hints at further rate cuts.
Weak German data and rising U.S. Treasury yields could keep EUR under pressure.
Key Levels: Support at 1.0300, break below could push to 1.0255.
British Pound (GBP)
UK GDP data on Thursday is crucial. A contraction may increase expectations of further BOE rate cuts.
Key Levels: GBP/USD support at 1.2360, resistance at 1.2550.
Gold (XAU/USD) & Oil (WTI/Brent) Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD)
U.S. inflation and Fed signals will drive gold prices.
Higher yields may pressure gold lower, but geopolitical risks could support safe-haven demand.
Key Levels: Support at $2,800, resistance at $2,900.
Crude Oil (WTI & Brent)
U.S. crude oil inventories on Wednesday will be a key driver.
Geopolitical risks remain a wildcard for oil markets.
Key Levels: WTI resistance at $75, support near $70.
Trading Strategy for the Week
Focus on U.S. CPI and Retail Sales for dollar direction. A hot CPI could boost the greenback, while weak retail sales may trigger a USD pullback.
Monitor GBP volatility around UK GDP data. A miss on growth expectations could pressure the pound lower.
Gold traders should watch inflation data and yields. Higher yields could weigh on gold prices.
Oil traders should track crude inventory data. Higher-than-expected inventories could push oil prices lower.
Stay alert to geopolitical risks and Trump-related headlines. These can create sudden market moves and trading opportunities.
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